Orbit & Odds

Space science, and the odds behind it.

Independent explainers on orbits and launch windows, and on the probability that runs through spaceflight: reliability, randomness, expected value and the law of large numbers.

  1. What an Orbit Really Is: Falling Around the Earth

    A satellite is not floating above the planet. It is falling towards it all the time and moving sideways fast enough that it keeps missing.

  2. Launch Windows Explained: Why Rockets Cannot Leave Whenever They Like

    A rocket's target is moving, and so is the launch pad. A launch window is the stretch of time when the geometry lines up well enough for the rocket's capability.

  3. Risk and Reliability in Spaceflight: Why Many Small Odds Add Up

    A rocket is thousands of parts that all have to work. Reliability engineering is the discipline of working out how likely that is, and how to make it more likely.

  4. Randomness, Random Numbers and Monte Carlo Simulation

    Space missions are designed with randomness on purpose. Simulating thousands of slightly different flights is how planners see the range of what could happen.

  5. Expected Value Explained: How to Weigh Uncertain Outcomes

    Expected value is the long-run average of a choice, weighted by how likely each outcome is. It is the first tool for comparing risky options, and its limits matter as much as its arithmetic.

  6. The Law of Large Numbers, From Telemetry to the House Edge

    Averages become reliable when you have enough independent samples. That single idea explains why engineers repeat measurements and why casinos can plan their income.